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Phils’ Ninth Slot Mightier Than Leadoff

There’s a statistic floating around the airwaves over the last few days [readers have reported hearing it on WIP-610 and Comcast Sportsnet] that the 9th position in the Phillies lineup is actually outperforming the 1st slot.  Most, including me, have found that hard to believe, but, if you consider OPS [on-base average plus slugging average], which you should, because it correlates much higher with run production than batting average, then it is indeed true.

Take a look:

	Batting Avg	On-base Avg	Slug. Avg
Batting 1st	.192	.238	.290
Batting 9th	.168	.258	.283

Now, a couple of caveats apply.  First, in the 9th slot, you don’t just have pitchers batting.  In late innings, you get a lot of pinch-hitters coming into the game, so the Matt Stairs’ and Greg Dobbs’ of the world are going to drive those numbers up.  To give you a sense of how much they are helping, the Phillies’ pitchers by themselves have a batting average/on-base average/slugging average line of .086/.189/.129.

Nevertheless, caveats or none, I think this is something we can add to the list of “Things That Need to Change”.

Where There’s Smoke, There’s Fire

And right now, Raul Ibanez’ groin is smoking.  Wait…  That came out wrong.  Really wrong.

But I think you know what I mean.  For the second straight night, Raul Ibanez will sit out of AA Reading’s lineup [Scott Lauber], where he’s supposedly doing a rehabilitation stint after his groin injury.

Team officials say he hasn’t suffered a setback, but given the way the team obfuscates injury-related information, I’m not buying it.

On J-Ro’ and Rodrigo

Yesterday, the Phillies announced that Rodrigo Lopez would – at least for the time being – replace Antonio Bastardo in the Phillies rotation.  The thinking is that Lopez has major league experience, while the other candidates, Carlos Carrasco and Andrew Carpenter, had very little to speak of.

As soon as the Phillies made it known that the new starter would get more than just a spot-start opportunity, I predicted Lopez would get the job.  The knock on Carrasco – fair or unfair – is his level of maturity or toughness, and Carpenter’s work ethic – again, fair or unfair – has been questioned.  If those are more than rumors, then it is certainly understandable why the Phillies went with Lopez.

Plus, it’s not as if Lopez has been pitching poorly.  In June, over 5 starts and 31 innings pitched, Lopez has struck out 22 and walked only 5, resulting in an ERA of 2.03.

Rodrigo Lopez isn’t going to win the Phillies another World Series, but as long as he is serviceable, he won’t prevent them from doing so either.

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Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy.  Jimmy.

Speaking of players who can cause a team to win or lose, there may be no player on the Phillies other than the day’s starting pitcher that means more to the team than Jimmy Rollins.  We’ve all seen the stats, when Jimmy Rollins scores a run, the Phillies are 456-1.  When he doesn’t score a run, things obviously don’t go that well, and for Rollins and the Phillies, this is more the norm than the exception this season.

On June 18th, Jimmy went 3 for 4.  Since then, he’s been 0-fer.  Ooohh for 27 to be exact.  This is more than just a slump at this point, it’s well into his head and other than the All-Star break, a scheduled vacation from the game, not a manager-driven 4-day “break” with all-eyes-and-cameras-on-Jimmy, I don’t see what’s going to get him out of it.

According to Fangraphs.com, if you quantify Jimmy’s batting record into cumulative runs, he’s performing at a level 21 runs below that of a replacement-level or AAAA-type player, if you will.

For the Phillies to put together any kind of successful campaign, that has to change.

I don’t envy Charlie Manuel one bit.

Another Two-Cent Theory on the Phillies’ Recent Slide

Over the last several evenings, we’ve seen our defending-World Champs, the same team that just a few weeks ago looked like they could take on the ‘27 Yankees and come out on top, completely hit the skids.

Suddenly, the Phillies have forgotten how to field, how to run the bases, how to hit, and though some might argue they never had a good grasp on it in the first place, pitch.  They’ve dropped 10 of their last 12 games and an NL East lead that once stood at 4 games and looked like it might double in no time has instead shrunk like George Costanza in that swimming pool out in the Hamptons.

Naturally, at times like this, everyone has a theory as to what ails the team, and I’m no different.  This fan’s theory is that the team has trouble pitching and what’s more, everyone on the team, in particular the position players, know that to be a fact as well and therefore try to hard to overcome those deficiencies.

As an example, lets consider the two most recent gaffes by position players.  In last evening’s game in Tampa/St. Pete/The Swan Station against the Rays, Pedro Feliz took off from first base on a routine fly ball to center field.  Naturally, he was doubled off of first and the mistake cost the Phillies a run as Matt Stairs was tagging up from third.

Another example is Jimmy Rollins.  You could take almost any phase of his game and say it has been affected by trying too hard, but we’ll take his gaffe in Thursday night’s game.  As you may recall, Rollins fielded a grounder and flipped to Chase Utley at second to get the quick force-out, rather than taking the time to throw to first to get the cement-footed Pat Burrell.  To an outsider, it seemed as if Rollins couldn’t wait to get that last out since they are so hard to come by, rushed it, and made the mental mistake.

I truly believe that when [if? please don’t let it be “if”…] the Phillies rotation is stabilized, the rest of the team will get into more of a comfort zone, relax, and play they way we know they are capable of playing.

That’s what gets me to sleep at night anyway.

When is a Slump More than a Slump?

Over the course of his last 162 games, dating back to June 11th, 2008, Jimmy Rollins is batting .249 with an on-base average of .315 and slugging percentage of .387.

That’s a full season and more than a calendar year of below-average performance.  Should we be worried about Jimmy?

To the Wives, Mothers, Girlfriends, Significant Others, Etc. of the Phillies

Ladies, I implore you.  When the Phillies return from the 10-day road trip they began last evening in Tampa [or St. Pete?  Where in the world do the Rays play? To be honest, it looks like a Dharma Station to me], I beg of you to do all of Phandom a favor…

Please, do not allow them back into their homes.  As you are painfully aware, the Phillies have the best road record in all of baseball at 23-9, and they only added to it by pasting the Rays and their cowbell swingin’ fans 10-1 last evening.  On the flipside, they also have the worst home record in all of baseball, 13 and 22, which was only made worse by the 1-8 homestand that just mercifully ended.  As a matter of fact, since Ben Franklin formed the Phillies on July 4th, 1776, they’ve only had four other homestands as bad.

So you see, Ryan, Jimmy, Chase, Cole, Jamie and all the rest, they can not sleep in their own beds for the remainder of the season.  Clearly, they play better after a night’s sleep on a Westin mattress.

As a matter of fact, to really do this right, it would be best if you would avoid feeding them home cooking.  Force them to go to all you can eat buffets, and in the case of the relief pitchers, they can only eat fast food tacos [see episode 2 of “The Pen”].

I understand this will be a hardship on you and your families, as a family man myself, I understand that.  But the Delaware Valley and all of the Phillies fans far and wide across this great nation need you to come up big right now.

Phils’ Best Option is to Wait for the Right Deal

This was going to be an entry about how the Phillies needed to make a trade now.  Pronto.  Toot-sweet.  The entry was was going to be a knee-jerk reaction to the 1-5 home-stand the team finds itself in.

The more I thought about it though, the more I decided that the last thing you want as a baseball fan is for your team to make a trade just for the sake of making a trade.  After all, rarely are good decision made in a state of panic or desperation.

And when you look around the National League, any sense of panic or desperation, at least as far as this fan felt, has dissipated.

Look, here’s the truth.  If you include the eventually healthy Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge, and barring any other injuries to significant players, the Phillies as presently constituted are good enough to make the playoffs.  Take a look around, and other than the Dodgers and maybe the Mets, the National League is a big pile of mediocrity.

But success in the playoffs is a different story.  The Phillies really can’t win another championship with Joe Blanton as their second best starter.  They can get into the playoffs, but going deep is another story. To win it all, they are going to need a starter to pair with Cole Hamels as an effective 1-2 punch, particularly in the first round’s short 5-game series.

So as has been said before, until Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. can figure out a way to shake one of those types of starting pitchers loose, I really don’t see the point in making a trade.

When It Rains it Pours

Literally and figuratively.

News comes from Todd Zolecki at phillies.com/mlb.com that Raul Ibanez has been placed on the disabled list with a strained groin.  John Mayberry, Jr. has been recalled to take his place.

This injury and the ones to Scott Eyre and Brad Lidge are exactly the type of thing the Phillies were able to avoid last year when the stars were aligned properly.  And the sun came out on occasion too.

On the Tee…

Tomorrow, at 7:00 AM, Rick Fowler, Casey Wittenberg and Bo Van Pelt will begin the 2009 U.S. Open when they tee off on the first hole of the Black Course at Bethpage Golf Club outside of New York.

A few thoughts the night before…

…Just as the Philadelphia area has experienced excessive rain over the last few weeks, so has the New York area.  As a matter of fact, they’ve had rain 29 out of the last 35 days.  This means the course will play soft and many will say this is an advantage to the longer hitters since tee balls will have very little roll on them.  On the other hand, you can argue that it actually helps the shorter hitters.  Normally, the hard greens wouldn’t be receptive to the 3 and 4 irons the shorter hitters will use to approach them, but with all the rain, those long-iron shots might just hit and stick.  Advantage short-hitters.

…Tiger Woods won the Memorial tournament two weeks ago and his game featured quite a bit of accuracy off the tee, something we aren’t used to seeing from Tiger.  If Tiger is that accurate this week at Bethpage?  Fugghettaboutit.

…This week marks the tenth anniversary of Payne Stewart’s win over Phil Mickelson at Pinehurst.  To this day, it is one of the best golf tournaments I’ve ever watched and I think many would agree with me.  Excellent golf played on a wonderful course, concluding with a dramatic victory full of sportsmanship.  Sadly, Stewart died in a plane crash just a few months later.

…Speaking of Phil Mickelson, he needs a little help.  I don’t want to jump on the guy too much since his wife, Amy, was recently diagnosed with cancer, and there’s no doubt he’s handling it amazingly well.  But having said that, I have to point out something about Phil that has been bugging me all year: his wardrobe.  Take a look at this:

Somewhere Up There…

Harry: …Another run scores and it looks like the Phillies’ bullpen will have to save the day again tonight.

Whitey: Hard to believe, Harry.

Harry: By the way, we’d like to congratulate longtime, faithful Phillies fan Mike Harmanos on the recent birth of his son, Landon, in California.

Whitey: Speaking of deliveries, I’d like to point out the arrival of the Celebre twins, “Plain” and “Pepperoni”…

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The above is my way of congratulating longtime BS&S.com reader, Beerleaguer.com reader, and phaithful fan Mike H. on the birth of his son. Mike, life will never be the same, good for you buddy.

You Make Your Own Luck and Pop-ups Make You Out

There’s a growing perception that Jimmy Rollins poor season to this point is due in large part to bad luck.  One example comes from a piece by Todd Zolecki on Phillies.com:

[Rollins] enters Tuesday's Interleague series opener against the Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park hitting just .217 with 13 doubles, one triple, five home runs, 25 RBIs, a .254 on-base percentage and a .330 slugging percentage.

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel and teammates see a player with some rotten luck. Line drives hit right at people. Fly balls outfielders snare at the last moment. Rockets hit on the ground that infielders stop.

"If there were a stat for hard-hit outs, I would bet he leads the team," catcher Chris Coste said.

Baseball Prospectus has a statistic called BABIP, which is batting average on balls in play. It includes plate appearances that don't result in a walk, strikeout or home run. Rollins' BABIP this season is .225. His career mark is .295. The NL average this season is .296. That suggests Rollins has run into some bad luck.

Not to pick on Zolecki or Coste, because in every electronic encounter I’ve ever had with either of them, they seem like fine guys, but there’s a reason Rollins batting average on balls in play is only .225.  It’s not luck:  Jimmy just isn’t hitting the ball hard.

Apologies for stating the obvious, but it should go without saying that weakly hit balls tend to become outs while well-struck balls are more likely to end up as base-hits.  So far this season, Rollins’ line drive rate* is 17.1%, the lowest of any season in a career that averages 21.6% line drives on batted balls.  Not only is his line drive rate down, but his infield fly rate is up to 14.4%, a career high (10.3% career average).

Don’t get me wrong, I’m pulling for Jimmy as much as possible.  In my opinion, there is nothing more fun at a baseball game than watching him flawlessly run around the bases, his smile is infectious and I firmly believe that his attitude has helped to change the Phillies organization into a winner.

But having said that, I don’t see how his sub-par season is the product of bad luck.  There’s a saying, you make your own luck, in which case, Jimmy needs to make more line drives.

* Courtesty of fangraphs.com

Upon Reflection…

Prior to leaving on a ten-day road trip that would preclude a series at home with the Boston Red Sox, perhaps the best team in the American League, Jamie Moyer talked about the importance of the stretch of games.  The upcoming series’ would be a good gauge for where the Phillies stood in the pecking order of baseball.

At the end of that stretch – despite a plethora of ups and downs -- the Phillies went 8-5 and increased their lead in the NL East to 4 games.  Not too shabby.

Today, Monday,the team gets some much needed rest.  On Tuesday, they will resume play here in Philadelphia against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Phils' Bullpen Might Not Pass the Penny Test

At some point, you've probably heard about the old penny test as it relates to tires on a vehicle.  Supposedly, you insert a penny upside down in the treads of the tires and if the treads reach the top of Abraham Lincoln's head, the tires still have some life.  On the other hand, if not, then the tires are at least a little worse for wear.

Though it's only June, it's safe to say that if you placed a penny on many of the members of the Phillies bullpen, you'd be hard pressed to give them a passing grade.

What we know for sure going into Suday's game:

• Scott Eyre and Brad Lidge are both on the disabled list.
• Clay Condrey has a balky back. 
• Chan Ho Park is "tender" 
• Chad Durbin is in the top ten in innings pitched for relievers and threw three of the bullpen's eight total innings in last evening's rain-delayed 11-6 loss to the Red Sox.
• Sergio Escalona, recently called-up for depth, pitched two innings in the loss. 

That's just what we know about.  Who knows what other sorts of ailments might be lingering out in the pen.

When you combine the early season woes of the starting rotation, the three extra-inning games this week and yesterday's rain-delay, it's amazing to think about how well the bullpen has held up and performed.

Given the state of the pen, you can expect J.A. Happ to be on a rather long leash today.

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Speaking of the bullpen, they'll appear tonight in The Pen, a reality series on the ML Network.  It's the first of 6 episodes to feature the Phillies bullpen.

How Long Before the "MVP!" Chants Begin?

Given the way the three-game series unfolded in New York (30 total innings played), and given the chilled, damp weather, the latest installment of Phillies/Mets felt like a playoff game.  Two take two of three and extend the lead in the NL East to four games is very important for your Fightins.

No one was more important in Thursday night’s Phillies’ 6-3 victory than Raul Ibanez.  Going into the top of the 10th inning, Ibanez was 0-4, but that didn’t mean he hadn’t chipped in.  Earlier in the game in the fourth inning, David Wright hit a ball hard off the leftfield wall, which Ibanez quickly fielded with his back to the infield.  Just as quickly, he turned and fired a bullet to Chase Utley at second base to throw out Wright.

But in the 10th inning of course, was the game-winning home run.  A home-run that capped off a 7-3 road trip in which the Phillies swept the Padres and broke their 10-game win streak, split four games with the best-record-in-baseball Dodgers, and then 2 of 3 from their arch nemesis Mets.

Afterwards, Ibanez said in a post-game interview, after downplaying his contributions, that he was “proud to be associated with this team.” Well Raul, I think I speak for a lot of phans when I say we’re proud to root for you every night. 

Somewhere Up There, Harry is Smiling

After Chase Utley's game-winning home-run in the 11th inning over the Mets, we need to hear Harry's classic call.  Click here [original entry here].

Analyzing Brad Lidge's Latest Trip to the Disabled List

As you may have heard by now, Brad Lidge has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained right knee.  The move is retro-active to June 7th, which means the Phillies will be eligible to use Lidge again on June 22nd.  In his place, Paul Bako was called up from AA-Reading, where he was serving in the Crash Davis role as an experienced catcher signed for depth and presumably to work with young pitchers.

The timing of the roster move is interesting given the recent return of J.C. Romero to the roster from his 50-game suspension.  I'm not one to fall for conspiracy theories, but sometimes little ones can hold some truth, and I tend to think that the Phillies were waiting to get Romero back and see how effective he was before sending Lidge and his chronically balky knee to the disabled list.  According to David Murphy of the Daily News, it doesn't seem as if the knee has been right for some time, even since Lidge was temporarily shelved earlier in the season, so it seems as if the Phillies have been just waiting for the right time.

Second, by bringing in Paul Bako to replace Lidge, it allows the Phillies to use Chris Coste as the right-handed bat off the bench the Phillies have been lacking all year.  Granted, a Ryan Spilborghs-type would be better for that role, but Coste can serve in a pinch.  He has an .876 OPS against left-handed pitching this season and .865 for his career.

Rivalry Week

Beginning tonight, the most over-hyped, over-done, over-ballyhooed rivalry will take center-stage in America’s sports consciousness:  Red Sox/Yankees.

But not everyone in the northeast corridor will be consumed by this conflagration, because a three-game Phillies/Mets series also begins this evening.

From the players and coaches of both teams, via the press, we’ll hear comments such as “it’s only June” in attempts to downplay the importance of the series.  However, you shouldn’t let that fool you for a couple of reasons:

• Though it is only June, you don’t get many chances to step on the opposition’s neck the way the Phillies do now.  They are three games up on the Mets and a sweep would make it a six-game lead.  In the history of baseball, far fewer 6-game leads in June have been lost than 3-game leads in June.  The former rarely happens, the latter can often happen.
• The two teams really don’t like each other.  It’s not a “hate” think, but it is a general dislike.  The Mets don’t like the Phillies for confidently winning the NL East in dramatic fashion the past two seasons and the Phillies don’t like the Mets because of the way they carry themselves.  Their choreographed celebrations don’t go over well with the Chase Utleys of the world.
• The Mets have something to prove.  Given all the injuries and fundamental miscues, the Mets confidence is wavering.  Carlos Beltran has said he’s embarrassed about the way the Mets have been playing.  With all of the problems they’ve had, they are going to be hungry to knock off the World Series champs.

No, this series isn’t deciding everything and the rest of the season still matters more, but, just as there are high-leverage situations in an individual game, so are there high-leverage situations in a season.  Tonight begins one of them.

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Lidge and Lucifer

Blogger/comedian/TV producer Paul Francis Sullivan, who shockingly goes by the nickname Sully, wrote this very funny analysis of Brad Lidge’s problems this season.

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Check back in the micro-missives widget in the right-hand sidebar during this week’s games.  Surely, we’ll have much to discuss and if you use Twitter or Facebook, look us up.